Bryan Grenfell’s Lab at Princeton used mathematical models to predict the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the resurgence of Mycoplasma pneumoniae (Mp) outbreaks in the US, given the observed long delays in outbreak resurgence compared to other respiratory pathogens.
- The model predicted a large Mycoplasma pneumoniae (Mp) outbreak in the US that is expected to peak in the second half of 2024 and last until the end of 2025, with a peak incidence 4.9 (95% CI: 4.0-6.0) times larger than previous peaks.
- The long delay in the resurgence of the Mp outbreak (over 3 years) was primarily driven by the strong reduction in transmission due to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a large build-up of the susceptible population.
- The timing of NPIs relative to the multiannual cycles of Mp outbreaks, as well as the duration of immunity, also contributed to the long delays in the resurgence of Mp outbreaks.
The large Mycoplasma pneumoniae outbreak in the US is expected to peak before the end of 2024 and be much larger than past outbreaks, due to the strong reduction in transmission from non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic as well as waning immunity.
Park SW, Noble B, Howerton E, Nielsen BF, Lentz S, Ambroggio L, Dominguez S, Messacar K, Grenfell BT. Predicting the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 on Mycoplasma pneumoniae in the United States. Epidemics. 2024 Dec;49:100808. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100808. Epub 2024 Nov 30. PMID: 39642758. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436524000690?via%3Dihub
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